TR
ENGEconomic Assessment Reports
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Report archive
June 2026 · Economic Assessment
Economic overview
Annual inflation was above its end-2025 level and second-quarter growth was more moderate. The effects of price-stability policies on production and employment warrant close monitoring.
Tax and public finance
Central government revenue was TRY 7,787.3 billion, expenditure TRY 8,730.2 billion and interest expenditure TRY 1,464.2 billion during January–June. The primary surplus describes the fiscal position before interest payments. Nominal tax collections alone do not measure real revenue growth or the tax burden. The June-only budget surplus of TRY 114.2 billion should be distinguished from the first-half deficit of TRY 942.8 billion.
International assessment
The IMF’s July 2026 outlook projected world growth of 3.0% for 2026. This is a forecast and has a different scope from Türkiye’s quarterly outturn above. Association assessment: Global financing conditions, energy costs and trading-partner demand can affect Türkiye through exports, the import bill and investment decisions. The same July 2026 forecast projected US growth of 2.3% and euro-area growth of 0.9%. Euro-area demand warrants particular attention in Türkiye’s export outlook.
December 2025 · Economic Assessment
Economic overview
Inflation remained elevated despite its downward trend. Predictable policies, productivity and the investment climate are jointly important for sustaining growth and improving expectations.
Tax and public finance
Central government revenue was TRY 12,835.5 billion, expenditure TRY 14,634.6 billion and interest expenditure TRY 2,054.4 billion during January–December. The primary surplus describes the fiscal position before interest payments. Nominal tax collections alone do not measure real revenue growth or the tax burden.
International assessment
The IMF’s January 2026 outlook projected world growth of 3.3% for 2026. This is a forecast and has a different scope from Türkiye’s quarterly outturn above. Association assessment: Global financing conditions, energy costs and trading-partner demand can affect Türkiye through exports, the import bill and investment decisions.
June 2025 · Economic Assessment
Economic overview
The coexistence of growth and disinflation increases the importance of capacity and demand composition. Financing costs and external demand remain key considerations for investment.
Tax and public finance
Central government revenue was TRY 5,598.6 billion, expenditure TRY 6,579.1 billion and interest expenditure TRY 1,111.4 billion during January–June. The primary surplus describes the fiscal position before interest payments. Nominal tax collections alone do not measure real revenue growth or the tax burden.
International assessment
The IMF’s July 2025 outlook projected world growth of 3.0% for 2025. This is a forecast and has a different scope from Türkiye’s quarterly outturn above. Association assessment: Global financing conditions, energy costs and trading-partner demand can affect Türkiye through exports, the import bill and investment decisions.
December 2024 · Economic Assessment
Economic overview
Annual inflation fell below its June level while growth remained positive. Lower inflation does not mean falling prices; real incomes also matter when assessing household welfare.
Tax and public finance
Central government revenue was TRY 8,670.9 billion, expenditure TRY 10,777.0 billion and interest expenditure TRY 1,270.5 billion during January–December. The primary deficit describes the fiscal position before interest payments. Nominal tax collections alone do not measure real revenue growth or the tax burden.
International assessment
The IMF’s January 2025 outlook projected world growth of 3.3% for 2025. This is a forecast and has a different scope from Türkiye’s quarterly outturn above. Association assessment: Global financing conditions, energy costs and trading-partner demand can affect Türkiye through exports, the import bill and investment decisions.
June 2024 · Economic Assessment
Economic overview
High annual inflation and more moderate growth need to be assessed together. Slower monthly inflation is encouraging, but a single month does not establish price stability.
Tax and public finance
Central government revenue was TRY 3,831.4 billion, expenditure TRY 4,578.5 billion and interest expenditure TRY 574.4 billion during January–June. The primary deficit describes the fiscal position before interest payments. Nominal tax collections alone do not measure real revenue growth or the tax burden.
International assessment
The IMF’s July 2024 outlook projected world growth of 3.2% for 2024. This is a forecast and has a different scope from Türkiye’s quarterly outturn above. Association assessment: Global financing conditions, energy costs and trading-partner demand can affect Türkiye through exports, the import bill and investment decisions.
December 2023 · Economic Assessment
Economic overview
Growth remained positive and year-end inflation stayed elevated. Durable disinflation requires alignment between expectations, fiscal discipline and productivity gains.
Tax and public finance
Central government revenue was TRY 5,210.5 billion, expenditure TRY 6,585.5 billion and interest expenditure TRY 674.6 billion during January–December. The primary deficit describes the fiscal position before interest payments. Nominal tax collections alone do not measure real revenue growth or the tax burden.
International assessment
The IMF’s January 2024 outlook projected world growth of 3.1% for 2024. This is a forecast and has a different scope from Türkiye’s quarterly outturn above. Association assessment: Global financing conditions, energy costs and trading-partner demand can affect Türkiye through exports, the import bill and investment decisions.
June 2023 · Economic Assessment
Economic overview
Annual inflation declined, but monthly price increases remained high. Domestic demand, the external balance and financing conditions should be monitored together when assessing the durability of growth.
Tax and public finance
Central government revenue was TRY 1,880.3 billion, expenditure TRY 2,363.6 billion and interest expenditure TRY 275.2 billion during January–June. The primary deficit describes the fiscal position before interest payments. Nominal tax collections alone do not measure real revenue growth or the tax burden.
International assessment
The IMF’s July 2023 outlook projected world growth of 3.0% for 2023. This is a forecast and has a different scope from Türkiye’s quarterly outturn above. Association assessment: Global financing conditions, energy costs and trading-partner demand can affect Türkiye through exports, the import bill and investment decisions.
December 2022 · Economic Assessment
Economic overview
Growth continued, while high inflation constrained purchasing power and planning. Price stability and productive investment remain central priorities.
Tax and public finance
Central government revenue was TRY 2,802.4 billion, expenditure TRY 2,941.4 billion and interest expenditure TRY 310.9 billion during January–December. The primary surplus describes the fiscal position before interest payments. Nominal tax collections alone do not measure real revenue growth or the tax burden.
International assessment
The IMF’s January 2023 outlook projected world growth of 2.9% for 2023. This is a forecast and has a different scope from Türkiye’s quarterly outturn above. Association assessment: Global financing conditions, energy costs and trading-partner demand can affect Türkiye through exports, the import bill and investment decisions.
Comparative indicators and data table
Across the reporting periods
| Period | CPI (%) | GDP (%) | Tax revenue | Budget balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 32.11 | 2.3 · Q2 | 6,619.7 | -942.8 |
| December 2025 | 30.89 | 3.4 · Q4 | 11,049.5 | -1,799.1 |
| June 2025 | 35.05 | 4.8 · Q2 | 4,771.5 | -980.5 |
| December 2024 | 44.38 | 3.0 · Q4 | 7,304.9 | -2,106.1 |
| June 2024 | 71.60 | 2.5 · Q2 | 3,213.4 | -747.2 |
| December 2023 | 64.77 | 4.0 · Q4 | 4,500.9 | -1,375.0 |
| June 2023 | 38.21 | 3.8 · Q2 | 1,602.3 | -483.2 |
| December 2022 | 64.27 | 3.5 · Q4 | 2,353.3 | -139.1 |
Data and methodology
This series was prepared retrospectively on 22 October 2026; titles identify the period reviewed rather than the original publication date. June reports cover Q2 and the January–June budget; December reports cover Q4 and the January–December budget. GDP figures use the release vintage in each linked SBB/TÜİK bulletin and may differ from subsequently revised national accounts.
Budget figures are cumulative actuals from the linked monthly reports, rather than appropriations or year-end forecasts. Amounts are converted from TRY million to TRY billion and rounded to one decimal. Source rounding may cause small differences in totals. A negative budget balance denotes a deficit and a positive balance a surplus. Nominal amounts are not inflation-adjusted; no tax-to-GDP ratio is calculated.
IMF rates are annual projections from the January or July outlook following the reporting period and are not presented as outturns. Domestic and international commentary consists of association assessments prepared for this page using the source data. These texts are not copies of previously published original reports.